<table class="texreg" style="margin: 10px auto;border-collapse: collapse;border-spacing: 0px;caption-side: bottom;color: #000000;border-top: 2px solid #000000;">
<caption>Statistical models</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 1</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 2</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 3</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 4</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 5</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr style="border-top: 1px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Mobilization for democracy</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.06<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.06<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Mobilization for Autocracy</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.11<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.11<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.08<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">GDP per capita (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.04</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.02</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.03<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.04<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.03)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">GDP growth rate</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Gas and oil production (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Population (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.06</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.06<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.02</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.14<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.03)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Avg. years of education</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.02<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01<sup>**</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Ethnic fractionalization</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.29<sup>**</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.18<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.19<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.03</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.26<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.10)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Intrastate conflict</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Ruling party dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.42<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.31<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.32<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.11<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Military dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.96<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.33<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.32<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.41<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.03<sup>*</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Hereditary dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.76<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.06</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.06</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.12</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.13)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.04)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.03)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.07)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.08)</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top: 1px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.70</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.85</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.85</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.85</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Adj. R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.69</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.84</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.84</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.84</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.72</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">within.r.squared</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.32</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.42</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.42</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.31</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Sigma</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.24</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.13</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.13</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.14</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">nobs</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7252</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7252</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7252</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7252</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7252</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">AIC</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-91.96</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-8360.63</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-8331.60</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-7884.46</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-12543.07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">BIC</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">1430.51</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-6838.15</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-6809.13</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-6361.98</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-11020.60</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-bottom: 2px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Log Likelihood</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">266.98</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">4401.32</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">4386.80</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">4163.23</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">6492.54</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td style="font-size: 0.8em;" colspan="6"><sup>***</sup>p &lt; 0.001; <sup>**</sup>p &lt; 0.01; <sup>*</sup>p &lt; 0.05</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
